{"id":950,"date":"2025-07-19T17:06:19","date_gmt":"2025-07-19T20:06:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/holfik.com\/ajuste-fiscal-estrutural-para-a-economia-desincronizada\/"},"modified":"2025-07-19T17:06:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T20:06:19","slug":"ajuste-fiscal-estrutural-para-a-economia-desincronizada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/holfik.com\/en\/ajuste-fiscal-estrutural-para-a-economia-desincronizada\/","title":{"rendered":"Structural Fiscal Adjustment for the Desynchronous Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Fiscal Adjustment<\/strong> is the central theme of this article, which addresses the current situation of the Brazilian economy, marked by a mismatch that requires deep reflection on the measures necessary to restore fiscal balance.<\/p>\n<p>We will discuss high inflation, rising public debt, and the challenges posed by loose fiscal policy versus tight monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>Analyzing the impact of these conditions on currency stabilization and ensuring a sustainable future for the Brazilian economy will be essential to understanding the path forward.<\/p>\n<h2>Brazilian Economy Out of Sync and Permanent Fiscal Adjustment<\/h2>\n<p>The report highlights that the Brazilian economy is <strong>out of sync<\/strong>, requiring a <u>important<\/u> <strong>permanent fiscal adjustment<\/strong> to avoid further imbalances.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, Brazil has faced challenges such as:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><u>high inflation<\/u> which is above the target;<\/li>\n<li>unanchored economic expectations;<\/li>\n<li>accelerated growth of <strong>public debt<\/strong>;<\/li>\n<li>erosion in the <u>current account balance<\/u><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These factors profoundly affect the country&#039;s economic stability, requiring rapid and coordinated responses from the authorities.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, the combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policies strengthens the real in the short term, but may weaken the currency in the long term.<\/p>\n<p>Structural fiscal adjustment should focus on achieving <strong>structural primary surpluses<\/strong> to resolve the economic issue effectively.<\/p>\n<p>The lack of signaling about spending cuts or revenue increases continues to increase the burden on the Central Bank, putting pressure on <u>high real interest rates<\/u> which are necessary in the short term, but insufficient to correct the economic course without an efficient fiscal movement towards surpluses.<\/p>\n<p>This fiscal uncertainty keeps the <strong>risk premium<\/strong> for medium and long-term securities, demanding concrete and targeted actions.<\/p>\n<h2>High Inflation and Unanchored Expectations<\/h2>\n<p>In Brazil, the <strong>high inflation<\/strong> has been a persistent challenge, directly affecting the daily lives of citizens and the country&#039;s economic performance.<\/p>\n<p>This complex scenario is further aggravated by the <strong>unanchored expectations<\/strong>, which imply a widespread loss of confidence among consumers and investors.<\/p>\n<p>This vicious cycle not only affects purchasing power but also makes business and investment planning difficult.<\/p>\n<p>The inflationary out of control is driven by several factors, such as the increase in production costs and the exchange rate devaluation, as mentioned in reliable sources such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c6bank.com.br\/blog\/inflacao\" alt=\"Blog do C6 Bank sobre infla\u00e7\u00e3o e seus efeitos\">C6 Bank Blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cThe persistence of high inflation rates undermines purchasing power and makes it difficult to anchor expectations, increasing the challenges of economic policy.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> Such a situation requires a coordinated response between fiscal and monetary policies to restore credibility.<\/p>\n<p>The Central Bank, as noted in reports, continues to adjust interest rates, but the absence of a robust and structured fiscal adjustment hinders the necessary progress.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, significant fiscal measures are essential to ensure the path to economic balance, as well as to attract new investments and foster a more stable economic environment.<\/p>\n<h2>Fiscal and External Imbalances<\/h2>\n<p>Fiscal and external imbalances go hand in hand in Brazil, increasing vulnerabilities and limiting the responsiveness of economic policy.<\/p>\n<p>The interdependence between these issues is critical to understanding the trajectory of the national economy.<\/p>\n<p>Below, we analyze two critical axes that illustrate this interaction.<\/p>\n<h2>Rising Public Debt and Erosion of the Current Account Balance<\/h2>\n<p>A <strong>growing public debt<\/strong> Brazil&#039;s debt represents a significant challenge, as it puts pressure on fiscal credibility and increases the cost of debt rollover, making the country more vulnerable to confidence shocks.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the <strong>erosion of the current account balance<\/strong> expands dependence on foreign capital, instrumentalizing the international market as a crucial factor for sustaining the domestic economy.<\/p>\n<p>These two economic indicators are moving in worrying directions, exacerbating the urgency for a sustainable and permanent fiscal adjustment that stabilizes investor expectations and strengthens the country&#039;s external balance sheet.<\/p>\n<p>In particular, rising debt requires Brazil to adopt stricter and more effective economic policies, potentially as a structural adjustment, as highlighted by economists.<\/p>\n<p>This adjustment needs to be reflected in the country&#039;s ability to generate primary surpluses that can balance debt in the medium and long term.<\/p>\n<table border='1' cellpadding='4'>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Indicator<\/th>\n<th>Macroeconomic Consequence<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Public debt<\/td>\n<td>Increased rolling costs and greater vulnerability to confidence shocks.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Checking Account<\/td>\n<td>Reduction of international reserves and exchange rate pressure.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Additionally, linking to the latest data provided by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/economia\/macroeconomia\/brasil-registra-deficit-em-conta-corrente-de-us-293-bi-em-maio-diz-bc\/\" alt=\"D\u00e9ficit em Conta Corrente no Brasil\">Central Bank<\/a>, it is understood that the reduction of international reserves exerts more pressure on the national currency, leading to possible exchange rate fluctuations with intensive inflationary impacts.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, it is <u><strong>imperative<\/strong><\/u> focus on reforms that aim to correct these imbalances to avoid uncertainty in the country&#039;s economic future.<\/p>\n<h2>Loose Fiscal Policy versus Tight Monetary Policy<\/h2>\n<p>The combination of <strong>loose fiscal policy<\/strong> It is <strong>tight monetary policy<\/strong> in Brazil generates a series of economic challenges.<\/p>\n<p>Initially, this duality of policies may seem beneficial, guaranteeing some positive effects in the short term.<\/p>\n<p>As noted, this interaction results in: <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>temporary strengthening of the real;<\/li>\n<li>partial containment of inflation through high interest rates;<\/li>\n<li>considerably high cost of domestic financing.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p> However, these benefits are often short-lived and can lead to major complications.<\/p>\n<p>The restrictive effect of <strong>tight monetary policy<\/strong> tries to neutralize, without much success, the expansive impacts of <strong>loose fiscal policy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This tension between macroeconomic policies can increase risk for investors, contributing to an environment of uncertainty in the financial market, as highlighted by Persio Arida in his <a href=\"https:\/\/valor.globo.com\/brasil\/noticia\/2024\/07\/01\/a-grande-ameaca-vem-do-lado-fiscal-diz-persio-arida.ghtml\" alt=\"Persio Arida alerta sobre a amea\u00e7a fiscal\">article in Valor<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, it can intensify public debt, resulting in a high fiscal burden on future governments, as mentioned by analysts in <a href=\"https:\/\/timesbrasil.com.br\/brasil\/economia-brasileira\/economia-relatorio-documento-politica-fiscal-ajuste-brasil-goldman-sachs\/\" alt=\"Relat\u00f3rio do Goldman Sachs\">Goldman Sachs report<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This growing divergence in policies could not only undermine economic competitiveness but also harm the sustained growth of the Brazilian economy in the long term.<\/p>\n<p><u><strong>Without fiscal and monetary balance, the currency&#039;s resilience could fade, threatening future economic stability.<\/p>\n<p><\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n<h2>The Urgency of a Structural Fiscal Adjustment<\/h2>\n<p>In Brazil&#039;s current economic context, it is essential to analyze the disparity between monetary and fiscal policy.<\/p>\n<p>O <strong>increase in interest rates<\/strong> emerges as a fundamental tool in the fight against inflation, but it does not, in isolation, resolve the complex fiscal situation that the country faces.<\/p>\n<p>As highlighted by in-depth analyses, the Central Bank&#039;s effectiveness has been limited due to a lack of significant spending cuts or robust revenue-raising initiatives.<\/p>\n<p>This worryingly shifts the weight of rebalancing to monetary measures, exacerbating high interest rate cycles and negatively impacting private investment.<\/p>\n<p>In pragmatic terms, only one <strong>structural fiscal adjustment<\/strong>, comprehensive and lasting, promises to restore balance to public accounts and anchor market expectations in the long term.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, any hesitation in implementing a clear fiscal strategy guarantees the maintenance of high capital costs and reaffirms the unsustainability of the public debt trajectory.<\/p>\n<p>Associates such as <a href=\"https:\/\/economia.uol.com.br\/noticias\/estadao-conteudo\/2025\/07\/18\/economia-brasileira-esta-fora-de-sincronia-e-exige-grande-ajuste-estrutural-diz-goldman-sachs.htm\" alt=\"Economia brasileira est\u00e1 fora de sincronia\">Goldman Sachs<\/a> highlight the importance of achieving structural primary surpluses to reduce exchange rate volatility.<\/p>\n<p><u><strong>A critical message here is the warning to the Central Bank<\/strong><\/u>, which, without the support of a fiscally conscious government, will see its capabilities progressively limited.<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, a commitment to fiscal reforms becomes imperative to mitigate the high risk premium observed in medium- and long-term bonds.<\/p>\n<h2>Fiscal Uncertainty and Risk Premium in Medium- and Long-Term Bonds<\/h2>\n<p>A <strong>fiscal uncertainty<\/strong> in Brazil it can be compared to a rough sea that the investor needs to cross.<\/p>\n<p>When these waters are turbulent, confidence diminishes, and the fear of not reaching the other side increases significantly.<\/p>\n<p>Consequently, to face this challenging journey, the market demands a <strong>high risk premium<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This is because investors, when lending to the government, seek compensation for potential future instability that could impact returns.<\/p>\n<p>Every swing in fiscal sentiment directly impacts the cost of public financing, increasing interest rates and thus complicating debt sustainability.<\/p>\n<p>To mitigate the risks associated with <u><strong>fiscal fluctuation<\/strong><\/u>, a robust and permanent fiscal adjustment is essential.<\/p>\n<p>Without it, rising interest rates, as discussed in an article in <a href=\"https:\/\/forbes.com.br\/forbes-money\/2024\/11\/eduardo-mira-risco-fiscal-e-o-impacto-nos-investimentos\/\" alt=\"Forbes Brasil: Risco Fiscal e o Impacto nos Investimentos\">Forbes Brazil<\/a>, only puts more pressure on finances, fueling a spiral of costly refinancing.<\/p>\n<p>In times of global risk aversion, this fragility intensifies, highlighting the symbiotic relationship between risk and confidence, similar to sailing in calm versus stormy seas, where calm suggests security and a storm is synonymous with imminent financial danger.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Fiscal Adjustment<\/strong> is, therefore, a pressing need for Brazil.<\/p>\n<p>Without effective measures towards structural primary surpluses, fiscal uncertainty will continue to raise investment risks, hindering sustainable economic growth.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fiscal adjustment is the central theme of this article, which addresses the current situation of the Brazilian economy, marked by a imbalance that demands deep reflection on the measures needed to restore fiscal balance. We will discuss high inflation, growing public debt, and the challenges posed by a policy [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[205],"tags":[441,401,440],"class_list":["post-950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-ajuste-fiscal","tag-economia-brasileira","tag-inflacao-alta"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ajuste Fiscal Estrutural Para A Economia Desincronizada - Holfik<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/holfik.com\/en\/ajuste-fiscal-estrutural-para-a-economia-desincronizada\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ajuste Fiscal Estrutural Para A Economia Desincronizada - Holfik\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ajuste Fiscal \u00e9 o tema central deste artigo, que aborda a atual situa\u00e7\u00e3o da economia brasileira, marcada por um descompasso que exige uma reflex\u00e3o profunda sobre as medidas necess\u00e1rias para restaurar o equil\u00edbrio fiscal. 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