Sharp Fall in Global Coffee Prices

Global Prices The coffee market has faced significant fluctuations, especially after the recent removal of a 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, which has become a decisive factor in this scenario.

In this article, we will explore the reasons behind this sharp drop in Arabica and Robusta coffee prices, the impact of previous tariff decisions, the importance of Brazil as the world's largest producer, and the limitations imposed by climatic factors that may further influence the market.

Understanding these elements is essential for analyzing future prospects for the coffee sector.

Sharp drop in global coffee prices on 11/21/2025

On November 21, 2025, the global coffee market experienced a sharp drop in terms of prices.

The removal of the 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee caused a sharp drop in Arabica and Robusta coffee prices, exceeding the mark of 4%.

This decision was in line with a previous order that had already reduced tariffs on food products from other countries.

Brazil, as the world's leading coffee producer, plays a crucial role in this scenario, supplying about a third of the coffee consumed in the United States.

The removal of this tariff has generated optimism in the market regarding easier access to Brazilian coffee for consumers, especially in the US.

However, analysts remain cautious due to... poor harvest and low stocks, factors that may limit a more significant drop in prices.

Furthermore, climatic phenomena such as La Niña and floods in Vietnam pose risks to robusta coffee production.

The main immediate effects on the global economy were:

• Reduction in import costs for consumers in the US.
• Adjustments in market strategies for coffee producers.
• Increased volatility in international stock market prices.

Given this scenario, it is essential to closely monitor weather and crop developments to fully understand the future of coffee prices.

For more details, access the full article at [link to article]. G1 on global coffee prices.

Continuation of the tariff reduction policy.

The removal of the 40% tariff did not occur in isolation, but rather as part of a broader tariff reduction policy.

This guideline had already been applied previously, aiming at the liberalization of trade in coffee and food between various countries.

In this way, the flow of international trade is redesigned, promoting a more competitive and accessible environment.

Background of the previous order

A strategic decision to reduce tariffs, published months before November 21, 2025Its initial objective was to facilitate trade between Brazil and the United States.

This guideline aimed to adjust import tariffs, promoting the competitiveness of Brazilian products in the American market.

By removing the customs tariff, products such as Brazilian coffee They gained momentum, paving the way for the global price drop seen in November.

This action, initiated by the Trump administration, integrated This involved a series of steps aimed at intensifying trade relations between the two countries, clearly demonstrating significant progress in bilateral negotiations.

Effects on international coffee trade

The recent tariff reduction on Brazilian coffee has spurred significant changes in international trade routes.

Node Southeast AsiaFor example, where robusta is produced abundantly, there has been increasing competitive pressure due to the rise in Brazilian exports, which are now more affordable.

Coffee producers in Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee-producing nation, face additional challenges. with intense competition and international prices that have fallen.

The opening of the market increased liquidity in the main trading centers, since Brazilian coffee, previously subject to surcharges, is now more competitive..

Latin America is also experiencing diverse effects.with some countries benefiting from reduced tariffs, while others face new logistical challenges.

Brazil's role in supplying coffee to the United States.

Brazil's strategic role in supplying coffee to the United States is central.

As the world's largest producer, Brazil not only sustains demand but also holds a significant share of American imports.

Trade relations between the two countries are heavily impacted by coffee.

According to data, American dependence on Brazilian coffee is vital, especially considering that one third A significant portion of what is consumed in the US comes from Brazil.

This has direct implications where any change in tariffs becomes an element of great importance.

Recent changes in rates, as reported by G1These changes were reflected in price dynamics and strengthened trade ties.

Brazil's role becomes even more relevant in discussions about trade policies between the countries, since tariff reductions can increase Brazilian competitiveness in the American market.

Optimism and limitations after the removal of tariffs.

The recent removal of tariffs on Brazilian coffee caused a initial optimism in the global market, reflecting a sharp drop in prices.

However, this optimistic trend encounters several counterpoints that require attention.

Industry analysts point out that, despite the opening of new markets, there is a constant reminder that "inventories remain tight."

As the world's largest supplier, Brazil is essential for stabilizing the market.

However, the crop failure This intensifies concerns about the ability to meet new demands.

Climate phenomena, such as La Niña, affect production and increase pressure on prices.

Risk analysis relates to market volatility due to the limited capacity of supply to adapt to new trading conditions.

Business decisions, as highlighted by the analysis of impact of the coffee marketThey need to balance this optimism with the inherent challenges in the supply chain.

Climate impacts on robusta production

Climate impacts represent a significant challenge for robusta coffee production in Vietnam, with particular emphasis on the influences of... La Niña and the recurring floods.

A La NiñaThe phenomenon, which generally causes an increase in rainfall in the region, can be detrimental to crops if the precipitation is excessive, compromising grain quality due to increased moisture, as observed in [reference to previous study/reference]. recent studies.

Additionally, the floods, which have become more frequent and intense, cause destruction of crops, as highlighted in several [reports/documents]. field reports.

This results in a reduced supply in the global market, directly influencing prices, which may remain high due to limited supply and consistent demand.

This combination of climatic factors requires constant monitoring to mitigate its adverse effects and ensure the stability of the global robusta coffee supply.

In conclusion, the recent drop in global coffee prices highlights the complexity of the market, where factors such as tariffs, production, and climate interact significantly.