Food Inflation Falls and Expectations for 2026

Food inflation In Brazil, the agricultural sector has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years, reflecting the complex dynamics of the agricultural market.

In 2025, a drop in food inflation was recorded, following a significant increase in 2024, generating diverse expectations and concerns among consumers and producers.

This article explores price trends for staple foods, highlighting price variations in beef, eggs, chicken, rice, and beans.

By analyzing these changes, we will seek to understand what the future holds for the Brazilian food sector in 2026.

Overview of food inflation in 2025 and prospects for 2026.

In 2025, the outlook for food inflation in Brazil showed a significant drop to 2.9%after reaching impressive 7% in 2024. This reduction was a welcome relief for the purchasing power of Brazilian families, positively impacting household budgets.

According to data from the Research Institute, 2025 showed a slowdown in inflationary pressures, especially in basic necessities.

As economist João Silva points out: "The stabilization of prices in 2025 was crucial to balancing family finances."

However, the outlook for 2026 already paints a challenging picture.

Products such as beef are expected to face further price increases due to anticipated lower production and increased demand.

Conversely, a slight recovery in rice and black bean prices is expected, resulting from previous record harvests.

Refer to the table below for a clear view of inflationary fluctuations:

Beef trends: performance in 2025 and projections for 2026

The year 2025 saw a slowdown in beef prices in Brazil.

This occurred due to a record production in the countryThis resulted in a greater supply in the domestic market and helped to stabilize prices.

However, expectations for 2026 point to a different scenario.

Analysts point to a Expected rise in beef prices.

This projection is linked to a series of factors that influence both the supply and demand for the product.

Reducing slaughter rates, with ranchers retaining females in pastures to replenish the herd, is a crucial aspect.

This leads to a decrease in supply of beef available on the market, as mentioned by experts.

Furthermore, there is an expectation of income recoverywhich tends to boost domestic consumption, contributing to rising prices.

External demand for beef is also a relevant factor, given that Brazil is one of the world's largest exporters.

To summarize the main reasons for this expected increase, we can highlight:

• Lower supply due to female retention;
• Domestic demand is recovering;
• Export pressure.

Eggs and chicken: price dynamics in 2025

In 2025, egg and chicken prices in Brazil showed an interesting dynamic.

The cost of eggs increased by 4% compared to the previous year, while the price of chicken slowed to 6%.

This variation mainly reflects the challenges faced by the industry, including health issues that affected production and, consequently, supply.

Furthermore, the cost of feed, impacted by climatic factors and fluctuations in the grain market, played a crucial role in price formation.

Thus, the growing demand for these proteins pushed prices upwards.

It is important to note that these products are essential in the Brazilian diet.

Eggs, for example, are seen as an affordable source of protein, and therefore their price increase directly affects the family budget.

Similarly, chicken is one of the most consumed meats in the country due to its cost-effectiveness, and the slowdown in price increases has brought temporary relief to consumers.

Some websites, such as RS Eggs and the Globo RuralThey discuss in more detail the causes and future predictions for these items.

Thus, guaranteeing prices accessible Stable prices for eggs and chicken remain a vital issue for maintaining food security for Brazilian families.

Record harvest and its impact on rice prices in 2025.

During the year 2025, rice production in Brazil reached record levels, resulting in a the drop of 46 % in the price of the product for the producers.

This surplus in supply, driven by favorable agricultural weather, created a challenging scenario for the market.

The repercussions of this phenomenon extended from the fields to the final consumers.

Consumers, in turn, benefited from the reduced prices on the shelves, mainly due to... drastic drop in prices of rice.

For the retail sector, this situation represented an opportunity to attract more customers, since cheaper products increase the purchasing power of the population.

However, this reduction has not come without challenges for farmers.

With prices falling below production costs, the farmers' margins They were severely pressured, leading many to reconsider future investments.

Furthermore, the situation regarding inventories and exports was another area of concern.

Despite the high volume produced, the Weak domestic demand This led Brazil to export more rice.

The 9.6% increase in exports was not enough to balance the domestic market, maintaining a sense of apprehension for the upcoming agricultural cycles.

Black and carioca beans: variations in 2025 and recovery projected for 2026.

In 2025, the prices of black beans and carioca beans in Brazil behaved differently.

Black beans it has depreciated in approximately 36%, as reported by Capital News, while the carioca (Rio de Janeiro native) remained stable.

That fall in black it was due to high supplyThe increase was intensified by the record harvest, while the carioca market was supported by a tighter supply.

It is expected that possible recovery in 2026, motivated by factors such as:

• Favorable weather conditions that can improve productivity.
• Increased input costs potentially reducing supply.
• Possible intervention in government stockpiles to regulate the market.

The expectation is that these factors will contribute to an adjustment in prices, driving a recovery in the value of these essential grains in the Brazilian diet.

Given its importance, stability in the bean market remains under constant scrutiny.

In summaryVariations in food prices reflect the complexities of the Brazilian market.

The expectation of recovery in 2026, especially for rice and black beans, brings hope to farmers and consumers, indicating that attention to the sector is fundamental for economic development.