Brazil's Trade Balance Shows Smaller Surplus

An analysis of Brazil's trade balance surplus in 2025 reveals a complex and challenging scenario for the country's economy.

With a significant drop compared to the previous year, Brazil faced a record trade deficit with the US, which heightened concerns about the sustainability of exports.

In this article, we will explore the main factors that influenced this situation, including the impact of the tariffs imposed by the US and Brazil's response in expanding its sales to other markets, such as China, Mercosur, and Europe.

Furthermore, we will discuss expectations for the future of the trade surplus in 2026.

Brazilian Trade Surplus in 2025 and its Reduction

The trade balance, which represents the difference between a country's exports and imports, is an important indicator of economic health.

In 2025, Brazil recorded a surplus of US$ 68.3 billion.

However, there was a drop in 7,9% in relation to 2024, highlighting an imbalance in growth between exports and imports.

This value is the smallest surplus of the three-year period.

This decline can be attributed, in part, to the negative impact of tariffs imposed by the US since April 2025, which have significantly affected Brazilian exports.

In contrast, the country managed to expand its sales to markets such as China, Mercosur, and Europe, which showed growth of 61% of the quarter-month period (TP3), 26.6% of the TP3, and 6.2% of the TP3, respectively.

These alternative markets helped to partially mitigate the impact of the growing trade deficit with the US, which reached [amount missing] in 2025. an increase of 2.900%.

Fall in Exports to the US and Record Trade Deficit

The history of Brazilian exports to the United States in recent years has been volatile, but the year 2025 marked a significant drop in trade relations.

Previously, Brazil maintained a balanced flow of exports to the American market, reaching US$ 40.37 billion in 2024. However, uncertain trade policies and tariff barriers imposed by the US from April 2025 onwards contributed to a sharp reduction in the value of Brazilian exports.

In 2025, Brazilian exports to the US decreased to US$ 37.72 billion, highlighting a profound impact on the country's trade balance.

This resulted in a trade deficit of US$ 7.53 billion, an alarming increase of almost 2.900% in relation to the modest positive balance of the previous year.

Probiotic trade and other areas also faced challenges.

Evidence of a record deficit This presents a scenario where the Brazilian economy needs to adapt rapidly to mitigate ongoing impacts related to such challenging trade policies.

Growth of Brazil's Total Exports and Imports in 2025

In 2025, Brazil delivered a remarkable performance with regard to its total exports and imports.

Exports totaled US$ 348.7 billion, reflecting a growth of +3,9% based on the daily average.

Imports, on the other hand, reached US$ 280.4 billionwith a significant increase of +7,1%.

These dynamics unfold within a broader economic context, where the Brazilian trade balance still registered a surplus, despite external pressures such as the impact of US tariff increases starting in April 2025.

Analysis of the figures reveals that, while the trade balance surplus has decreased, the increase in imports indicates a heated domestic economy.

This factor, combined with the growth of exports to markets such as China, Mercosur, and Europe, highlights a diversification of trade partnerships that can be further explored to ensure economic resilience.

However, the widening deficit with the United States, resulting from tariffs, presents a challenge that requires strategic attention.

Therefore, to maximize growth opportunities, Brazil should continue to seek trade agreements that promote the reduction of tariff barriers and encourage the competitiveness of national products in the international market.

Impact of US Tariff Increase on Brazilian Exports

O US tariff hike implemented in April 2025 generated a immediate effect on exports Brazilian women to the United States.

This tariff policy imposed a substantial increase in tariffs on Brazilian products, directly impacting competitiveness and sales volume in the American market.

The contraction in exports, which fell from US$40.37 billion in 2024 to US$37.72 billion in 2025, translated into an alarming increase in the trade deficit to US$7.53 billion, a jump of almost 2.9 billion compared to the balance of US$253 million in the previous year. check here.

Furthermore, the negative impact was amplified by additional tariffs imposed on commodities essential, further reducing exporters' profit margins.

To mitigate these challenges, Brazil adopted a market diversification strategy, significantly expanding its sales to regions such as Mercosur and Europe.

This strategic adaptation seeks to compensate for losses and avoid excessive dependence on a single market, ensuring long-term economic stability.

Expanding Sales from Brazil to China, Mercosur, and Europe

Faced with a challenging scenario of US trade barriers, Brazil broadened its horizons, intensifying exports to highly relevant alternative markets. such as China, Mercosur and Europe.

This diversification was crucial to sustaining the growth of Brazilian foreign trade.

The numbers speak for themselves:

• China: +6%
• Mercosur: +26,6%
• Europe: +6,2%

These advances These were crucial in partially offsetting the adverse effects of the significant decline in exports to the US, which decreased by US$ 40.37 billion to US$ 37.72 billion recording an increase in the deficit of almost 2,900,100 Tbp..

In short, while the US became an obstacle, Brazil's shrewdness in establishing stronger relationships with China, Mercosur It is Europe It has become a vital strategy for the country's economic experience in 2025.

Expectations for Brazil's Trade Surplus in 2026

A recovery The expected surplus in Brazil's trade balance in 2026 is estimated to be between US$ 70 billion and US$ 90 billion, reinforcing a positive expectation for the economic future of Brazil.

This optimism is fueled by increased exports to alternative markets, such as China, Mercosur, and Europe, which support the demand for Brazilian products.

Furthermore, government policies are being adopted to mitigate the impact of unfavorable tariffs, especially from the United States, and to strengthen the export sector.

The pursuit of new international agreements and the strengthening of trade relations contribute to creating a scenario of growth and prosperity.

Maintaining this scenario depends on Brazil's ability to diversify its export portfolio and adapt quickly to changes in the global market.

In short, the year 2026 promises to be an important milestone in the trajectory of recovery and growth of the surplus.

In summary, the Brazilian trade balance is currently in a period of transition.

The challenge lies in recovering the surplus and diversifying markets, with hopes for a more promising scenario in 2026.