Impact of the 50% Import Tax on SMEs

The import tax rate of 50% for Brazilian products, which comes into effect on August 1, brings to light a series of challenges for small businesses in Brazil, especially in São Paulo.

In this article, we will explore the implications of this new tax, the high interest rates, and the increased expenses that further complicate the economic landscape.

Furthermore, we will analyze how micro and small businesses are reviewing their export strategies, highlighting specific cases such as Strati Gelato and Rede de Compras.

The economic outlook reveals concerns, but also opportunities, as household consumption and the recovery of the labor market may offer some support.

Growth projections modest GDP growth for the coming years is also worth highlighting.

Immediate effects of the 50% tax rate on small businesses in São Paulo

From August 1st, the 50% tax rate on imported Brazilian products will have a significant impact on small businesses in São Paulo.

This measure results in a significant increase in the final costs of products, creating an environment of uncertainty and concern among micro and small business owners in São Paulo.

Entrepreneurs in São Paulo, especially those operating small neighborhood businesses, face additional challenges due to this change.

Many of these businesses rely heavily on import platforms to stock your products.

The tariff increase puts pressure on their already reduced profit margins.

With costs rising, many of these entrepreneurs are reviewing their strategies, seeking alternatives to adapt to this new economic scenario.

A growing concern is that this rate could negatively affect the financial sustainability of local businesses, increasing the cost of living and reducing competitiveness.

Economic challenges: high interest rates and rising expenses

Since 2024, the Selic rate maintained at high levels directly impacts the financial operations of Brazilian SMEs.

The higher interest rate makes the loans more expensive banking services, increasing the cost of capital.

According to the SME revenue fell by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting how these financial barriers affect the sector.

Furthermore, the need to finance operating expenses takes away from companies the possibility of investing in growth and expansion of their activities.

A economic pressure is exacerbated by rising domestic expenses, especially with inflation affecting food and energy, becoming a significant obstacle for companies that rely on imported inputs.

For example, the Strati Gelato struggles with the cost of California pistachios, preventing it from increasing its production capacity.

Thus, SMEs face a dilemma between maintaining competitive prices and protecting profit margins, a challenge that threatens the long-term viability of their businesses.

However, economic projections suggest that a slight recovery may occur in the labor market, creating monetary relief that should only be felt from 2026 onwards, with the expected reduction in the Selic rate.

Review of the strategies of exporting and importing SMEs

With the recent increase in the import tariff for Brazilian products established in 50%, Brazilian SMEs face urgent need for strategic review.

In São Paulo, where the density of small and medium-sized companies is high, the changes are evident.

Companies that export to the US or that depend on imported inputs are making a series of adjustments to survive this challenging new economic scenario.

A notable example is Strati Gelato, which faces significant cost increases due to imported Californian pistachios, which are essential to its revenue.

This increase pressured the company to rethink its cost structure and seek alternative suppliers.

Similarly, the Purchasing Network has suspended previous investments, highlighting the pressure on resources and the need to allocate capital more efficiently now link.

SMEs implement strategies such as:

• Focus on new local markets
• Order reduction
• Negotiations with suppliers for more favorable terms

.

Although household consumption will expand due to the recovery in the labor market, the expected monetary relief with the reduction in interest rates may not occur before 2026, further putting pressure on the operations of these companies.

Macroeconomic impact of the tariff package

The recent tariff package that establishes an import tariff of 50% for Brazilian products represents a significant pressure factor on the national economy.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), already facing challenges due to high interest rates and rising expenses, are now forced to review their strategies, which tends to slow down their activities.

This scenario could have a negative impact on the production and growth of SMEs, contributing to a slowdown in economic activity in the country.

GDP growth projections 2025-2026

GDP growth projections of 2.2% in 2025 and 1,9% in 2026 are below the average of 3.2% seen between 2022 and 2024. This scenario reflects the economic challenges imposed by the new tariff package of 50%.

SMEs, especially those that depend on imports or export to the US, need to adapt their strategies.

An example is the XP Investments which revised its projections after the economic impact of tariffs, highlighting additional pressure on small businesses.

Domestic demand should help, but monetary easing is only expected in 2026.

Household consumption outlook and future monetary easing

O household consumption in Brazil it continues to play a crucial role in helping to sustain SMEs, even in the face of expensive credit.

According to data from a search, family consumption is expected to remain dynamic, driven by labor market recovery.

This dynamic is vital, especially considering the additional pressures of increased import tariffs.

Despite this, the horizon of economic relief seems to be firming with forecasts of interest rate cuts only in 2026. This anticipated rate reduction challenges SMEs to adapt while they wait for financial relief.

The market reflects a limited optimism, since, although there is an expectation of economic growth, projections are for modest growth for 2025 and 2026. Thus, while challenges persist, household consumption potential continues to be a vital support line for many companies.

In short, the new import tariff and economic challenges require SMEs to adapt quickly.

The near future still presents uncertainties, but companies' capacity for innovation and resilience may be the key to overcoming these obstacles.